Israel's October 2026 election and Netanyahu's bid for another term

The Arab parties' place on the ballot was contested. In late September, Israel's Central Elections Committee barred the main Arab lists, Ra'am and the Joint List, from the vote after petitions from members of Netanyahu's coalition.^[12] Sami Abu Shehadeh, head of the left-wing Arab party Balad, withdrew his candidacy after the Supreme Court indicated that a majority of its judges supported disqualifying him.^[13] The court then overturned the ban on the Arab parties and reinstated the candidacy of Ofer Cassif, a far-left Jewish lawmaker.^[14] Arab-led parties could decide the outcome if others were willing to partner with them, but Netanyahu and other major leaders said they would not.^[15]

Washington weighed in late. In an interview with Time magazine, Trump sidestepped repeated questions about whether Netanyahu should be reelected and highlighted instead his support for Israel's defense.^[16] He endorsed Netanyahu in mid-October, while saying he did not trust anyone in politics, including Netanyahu,^[17] and later predicted a "tremendous victory" for him.^[18] Vance declined to endorse Netanyahu, saying he was focused on the US midterm elections.^[19] The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu.^[20] Analysts also weighed how a Netanyahu defeat could change Israel's policies toward the Palestinians.^[21]

The result left Israel in limbo. On election day, Netanyahu and his far-right partners warned of surging Arab turnout in a last push to get their supporters to the polls, a tactic Arab politicians denounced as racist, and election officials rejected a bid by Likud and its allies to extend voting hours.^[2] Exit polls suggested that Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu's main challenger, would have to work with Arab-Israeli leaders to have a hope of governing.^[2] President Isaac Herzog, who decides whom to task with forming the next government, called for compromise.^[22][2]

Netanyahu's challenge to the result weakened within days. His party amplified unproven claims that Arab-led parties had stolen the election,^[4] and officials said on November 1 that the vote would not be undermined.^[23] CNN noted that Netanyahu had warned of Arab turnout in 2015 as well.^[24] Palestinian citizens of Israel voted in record numbers, and the two Arab-led parties' showing raised the prospect that they could be kingmakers.^[25][26] Reuters reported that experts expected Netanyahu to face more constraints as caretaker prime minister.^[7]

The opposition then moved to form a government. Israeli opposition parties united behind Eisenkot,^[8] and a veteran Arab lawmaker said his bloc was willing to break with decades of precedent and join forces with Jewish-led parties to end Netanyahu's rule, though challenges remained.^[9] Netanyahu's rivals also seized on the Democrats' capture of the US Congress as proof that he had squandered support in Washington, Reuters reported.^[27]

Eisenkot said on November 8 that he would work to form a wide government as quickly as possible, though his path was uncertain.^[28][6] As the new Knesset took office on November 10, he pledged to open an official inquiry into Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack and to reverse many of Netanyahu's policies.^[6] CNN reported that Israel faced a long stretch of political uncertainty after Netanyahu lost the majority that had kept him in power.^[29] Eisenkot met Netanyahu as Israeli television reported that Israel had no immediate plans for another strike on Iran,^[30] and on November 13 he accused Netanyahu of fueling a "racist" campaign against Israel's Arab minority, whose parties Netanyahu had accused of electoral fraud.^[31]