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Ongoing story / Kalshi

The fight over prediction markets: state gambling suits and insider betting

Overview · reviewed November 14, 2026

such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which let users bet on the outcomes of elections, sports and other events, have exploded in popularity and set off fights with states that call them illegal gambling.[1][2] The federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has gone to court to defend them, but in 2026 several courts, including the 6th Circuit appeals court, ruled that states can regulate them, and New Jersey and the NFL have asked the Supreme Court to step in; in late October Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi's founders.[3][4][5][6][7] At the same time a string of insider-betting cases, from political candidates to a Google engineer and the military, has led to new restrictions.[8][9][10]

Read the timeline

Follow this story to see new developments when you return.

The federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has gone to court to defend them, but in 2026 several courts, including the 6th Circuit appeals court, ruled that states can regulate them, and New Jersey and the NFL have asked the Supreme Court to step in; in late October Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi's founders.[3][4][5][6][7] At the same time a string of insider-betting cases, from political candidates to a Google engineer and the military, has led to new restrictions.[8][9][10]

Coverage over time

Share of tracked outlets · weekly (UTC)

Week of 2026-03-16 (UTC): 12%, 21 of 178 tracked outlets (9 left, 9 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-03-23 (UTC): 4%, 7 of 170 tracked outlets (2 left, 5 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-03-30 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-04-06 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-04-13 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-04-20 (UTC): 10%, 16 of 157 tracked outlets (6 left, 6 center, 4 right)Week of 2026-04-27 (UTC): 4%, 7 of 160 tracked outlets (3 left, 3 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-05-04 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-05-11 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-05-18 (UTC): 4%, 8 of 197 tracked outlets (5 left, 1 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-05-25 (UTC): 4%, 7 of 185 tracked outlets (2 left, 3 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-06-01 (UTC): 6%, 11 of 186 tracked outlets (4 left, 4 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-06-08 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-15 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-22 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-29 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-07-06 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-07-13 (UTC): 9%, 52 of 559 tracked outlets (13 left, 29 center, 10 right)Week of 2026-07-20 (UTC): 1%, 7 of 562 tracked outlets (1 left, 5 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-07-27 (UTC): 11%, 64 of 561 tracked outlets (16 left, 35 center, 13 right)Week of 2026-08-03 (UTC): 1%, 4 of 537 tracked outlets (1 left, 2 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-08-10 (UTC): 3%, 18 of 545 tracked outlets (7 left, 8 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-08-17 (UTC): 2%, 8 of 464 tracked outlets (0 left, 7 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-08-24 (UTC): 2%, 7 of 466 tracked outlets (2 left, 3 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-08-31 (UTC): 11%, 50 of 475 tracked outlets (17 left, 25 center, 8 right)Week of 2026-09-07 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-09-14 (UTC): 1%, 5 of 480 tracked outlets (1 left, 3 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-09-21 (UTC): 6%, 27 of 479 tracked outlets (8 left, 13 center, 6 right)Week of 2026-09-28 (UTC): under 1%, 1 of 476 tracked outlets (0 left, 1 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-10-05 (UTC): 8%, 40 of 479 tracked outlets (8 left, 23 center, 9 right)Week of 2026-10-12 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-10-19 (UTC): 3%, 16 of 479 tracked outlets (3 left, 11 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-10-26 (UTC): 4%, 17 of 473 tracked outlets (3 left, 7 center, 7 right)Week of 2026-11-02 (UTC): 2%, 9 of 471 tracked outlets (5 left, 3 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-11-09 (UTC): 3%, 16 of 473 tracked outlets (6 left, 4 center, 6 right), so far

LeftCenterRightLighter bar: this week so far

Each bar is the share of the outlets on our Left / Center / Right rating scale that we tracked publishing that week which carried reporting on this story, split by the outlets' ratings. We track more outlets now than in the archive, so a share keeps earlier and later weeks comparable. An outlet counts once a week however much it published, and outlets in one ownership or syndication group count as one on each side they appear on. A rating describes the outlet, not the report. A gap means no such reports were collected that week, not that nothing was reported anywhere. Weeks run Monday to Sunday in UTC, so a report published on a Sunday evening in US Eastern time counts in the next week. 10 more outlets off the scale (not rated, or outside the left-right graphs) also reported; they are not in this chart. See them.

Weekly counts, outlets and reports (23 weeks with coverage)
Outlets on the rating scale that carried this story each week, of the outlets tracked that week, newest first
Week of (UTC)LeftCenterRightOf trackedShareReceipts
Nov 9, 2026 (so far)64616 of 4733%
Nov 2, 20265319 of 4712%
Oct 26, 202637717 of 4734%
Oct 19, 2026311216 of 4793%
Oct 5, 2026823940 of 4798%
Sep 28, 20260101 of 476under 1%
Sep 21, 2026813627 of 4796%
Sep 14, 20261315 of 4801%
Aug 31, 20261725850 of 47511%
Aug 24, 20262327 of 4662%
Aug 17, 20260718 of 4642%
Aug 10, 202678318 of 5453%
Aug 3, 20261214 of 5371%
Jul 27, 202616351364 of 56111%
Jul 20, 20261517 of 5621%
Jul 13, 202613291052 of 5599%
Jun 1, 202644311 of 1866%
May 25, 20262327 of 1854%
May 18, 20265128 of 1974%
Apr 27, 20263317 of 1604%
Apr 20, 202666416 of 15710%
Mar 23, 20262507 of 1704%
Mar 16, 202699321 of 17812%

Latest coverage

The newest reporting in this story's record.

  1. Nov 12, 2026 · first reported · Headline from Myarklamiss

    AG Murrill: Lawsuit filed against Kalshi, others in Louisiana state court

Background

In March 2026 Arizona became the first state to file criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing it of running an illegal gambling business,[2] the same week Major League Baseball announced a partnership with Polymarket.[11] Minnesota passed the first law banning prediction markets outright; the CFTC sued to block it,[3] and a federal judge did so days before it took effect.[12] Washington state won an ordering Kalshi to stop most operations there,[13][14] a federal court ruled that Kalshi could not stop Nevada from regulating it,[15] and Utah was allowed to enforce its anti-gambling laws.[16] New York sued Kalshi for $36 billion in damages and later sued Polymarket,[17][18] and in September the 6th Circuit ruled unanimously that Ohio and Tennessee could regulate the platforms as gambling.[4]

Read the full background (1 more paragraph)

Insider betting became the other front. Kalshi and Polymarket tightened their rules as Congress moved toward a crackdown,[19] three congressional candidates were accused of betting on their own races,[8] and the Senate barred its members from trading on prediction markets.[20] Federal prosecutors accused a Google security engineer of using confidential company data to win $1.2 million on Polymarket.[9] Former Rep. George Santos paid $35,000 to settle a federal investigation into bets on his own appearance at Trump's State of the Union and was banned from Kalshi for life.[21][22] Polymarket flagged dozens of accounts showing signs of insider trading on military operations to the Justice Department,[23] and in October Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told troops they could not use nonpublic information to place bets.[10] Kalshi's fights with states kept multiplying: Utah charged its founders in late October, and the company called it "crazy overreach,"[7] Kalshi sued Missouri's attorney general over a cease-and-desist letter,[24] and Arkansas sued it in November.[25] A bipartisan pair of senators pressed Kalshi and Polymarket over their markets on the midterm elections.[26] In November, Louisiana's attorney general sued Kalshi, Polymarket and others in state court,[27] and Kalshi ended Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory role after his venture firm, 1789 Capital, invested heavily in Polymarket, where he remains an adviser.[28]

Supporting stories (28)
  1. Kalshi leads prediction markets’ $3 million effort to fight off state regulations
  2. Arizona AG files criminal charges against Kalshi over 'illegal gambling'
  3. Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets, Trump administration sues
  4. Appeals court rules against Kalshi, says prediction markets can be regulated like gambling
  5. New Jersey asks Supreme Court to shut down prediction markets
  6. The NFL is urging the Supreme Court to rule on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket
  7. Utah charges Kalshi’s founders, escalating a war over who can regulate prediction markets
  8. Kalshi fines and suspends 3 congressional candidates for wagering on their own elections
  9. Google engineer made $1.2M by placing bets on Polymarket using confidential info, prosecutors allege
  10. Pentagon bans troops from using nonpublic info to bet in prediction markets
  11. MLB partners with Polymarket and makes integrity pact with federal commission on prediction markets
  12. Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court
  13. Washington judge halts Kalshi ‘prediction market’ over state gambling laws
  14. Kalshi ordered to cease most operations in Washington state
  15. Federal appeals court panel gives Nevada a win in its fight to regulate prediction market Kalshi
  16. Judge lets Utah enforce state anti-gambling laws on Kalshi
  17. New York sues prediction market platform Kalshi alleging 'illegal gambling operation'
  18. New York sues Polymarket, alleging illegal gambling operation
  19. Kalshi and Polymarket place new bans on insider trading as senators move to curb prediction markets
  20. Senate bans prediction market trading by members, staff
  21. George Santos agrees to $35,000 settlement in federal probe over Kalshi trades
  22. Kalshi bans ex-Congressman George Santos for life after concluding he likely was insider trading
  23. Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says
  24. Kalshi sues Missouri AG after cease-and-desist letter over sports bets
  25. Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin files suit against Kalshi prediction market, VGW gaming platform
  26. Bipartisan pair of Senators press Kalshi, Polymarket over election markets
  27. Atty. Gen. Murrill: Lawsuit filed against Kalshi, others in Louisiana state court
  28. Donald Trump Jr. exits advisory role at prediction market Kalshi

The full record

Each date is when an update was first reported.

All 38 recorded updates

November 2026

  1. Atty. Gen. Murrill: Lawsuit filed against Kalshi, others in Louisiana state courtHeadline from KLFY Lafayette · 1 outlet
  2. Donald Trump Jr. exits advisory role at prediction market KalshiHeadline from WKBN Youngstown · 19 outlets
  3. Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin files suit against Kalshi prediction market, VGW gaming platformHeadline from KARK Little Rock · 3 outlets
  4. Prediction Markets Nail the Midterms as Billions Bet on Election OutcomeHeadline from Cheddar · 7 outlets

October 2026

  1. Bipartisan pair of Senators press Kalshi, Polymarket over election marketsHeadline from The Hill · 3 outlets
  2. Kalshi sues Missouri AG after cease-and-desist letter over sports betsHeadline from FOX 2 St. Louis · 3 outlets
  3. Utah charges Kalshi’s founders, escalating a war over who can regulate prediction marketsHeadline from New York Post · 17 outlets
  4. Pentagon bans troops from using nonpublic info to bet in prediction marketsHeadline from Phl17 · 13 outlets
  5. Utah sues Kalshi, claims Utahns lost millions in illegal gamblingHeadline from Local News 8 · 4 outlets
  6. Kalshi investigating suspicious bets tied to White house press secretary pick: ReportHeadline from The Hill · 16 outlets
  7. Kalshi leads prediction markets’ $3 million effort to fight off state regulationsHeadline from Casper Star-Tribune · 9 outlets
  8. The NFL is urging the Supreme Court to rule on prediction markets like Kalshi and PolymarketHeadline from Fast Company · 25 outlets

September 2026

  1. Appeals court rules against Kalshi, says prediction markets can be regulated like gamblingHeadline from The Hill · 10 outlets
  2. New York sues Polymarket, alleging illegal gambling operationHeadline from FOX 5 New York · 23 outlets
  3. Missouri AG orders Kalshi, Polymarket to stop operating prediction markets hereHeadline from St. Louis Post-Dispatch · 5 outlets
  4. New Jersey asks Supreme Court to shut down prediction marketsHeadline from 6ABC Philadelphia · 16 outlets

August 2026

  1. North Carolina congressional candidate banned from Kalshi for betting on her own raceHeadline from FOX8 WGHP · 5 outlets
  2. Kalshi bans Santos for life over bets on State of the Union attendanceHeadline from Phl17 · 4 outlets
  3. Kalshi bans ex-Congressman George Santos for life after concluding he likely was insider tradingHeadline from WDIO Duluth · 49 outlets
  4. Federal appeals court panel gives Nevada a win in its fight to regulate prediction market KalshiHeadline from Philadelphia Inquirer · 7 outlets
  5. Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source saysHeadline from KRDO · 8 outlets
  6. Kalshi ordered to cease most operations in Washington stateHeadline from Honolulu Star-Advertiser · 9 outlets
  7. New York City Council investigating prediction markets' marketing practicesHeadline from The Hill · 10 outlets
  8. Judge lets Utah enforce state anti-gambling laws on KalshiHeadline from Just the News · 4 outlets

July 2026

  1. George Santos agrees to $35,000 settlement in federal probe over Kalshi tradesHeadline from Daily Journal · 14 outlets

Coverage & sources

Read the reports, see how much was collected over time, or compare outlets by political leaning.

Coverage & sources →