Coverage dated November 3, 2026 to November 5, 2026
Prediction Markets Win Big on Election Night
Headline from RealClear Investigations
Jake Angelo, Semafor Kalshi and Polymarket correctly called the Democratic sweep of Congress by wider margins than most polling models, as well as some key battleground races.
RealClear Investigations's own description from its feed. We collect headlines and these descriptions, not full articles; read the original reporting below.
Polymarket and Kalshi have risen for collecting the ‘wisdom of crowds’. But after high-profile blunders, some wonder if their predictions were just ‘stupid people getting lucky’ Just as voting was due to end in Brazil’s presidential runoff on 25 October, a supreme court justice ordered polling stati…
The US presidential election in 2024 served as a big-bang moment for prediction markets. Two years later, their forecasts on the 2026 midterms are getting plenty of attention, but the underlying trading illustrates how the platforms have struggled to expand beyond a few booming categories.
WASHINGTON >> With more than $1.48 billion wagered on today’s midterm elections, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are facing their biggest test yet of how reliably they can forecast political races amid growing scrutiny of their businesses.
WASHINGTON — With more than $1.48 billion wagered on Tuesday’s midterm elections, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket face their biggest test yet of how reliably they can forecast political races amid growing scrutiny of their businesses.
Jake Angelo, Semafor Kalshi and Polymarket correctly called the Democratic sweep of Congress by wider margins than most polling models, as well as some key battleground races.
Prediction markets are gaining credibility after platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket signaled a Democratic sweep of Congress ahead of the midterm results.
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Prediction Markets Win Big on Election Night | Since Then
