The Federal Reserve's interest rates, from the 2022 hikes to the 2026 reversal

With inflation surging, the Fed began raising rates in March 2022 and made its largest increase since 1994 in June.^[1][13] It kept raising them in big steps through the year, with Powell warning that the fight could bring "pain" and job losses.^[14][15] It slowed the pace in 2023 amid turmoil in the banking industry, paused in June, and raised rates for the 11th time in July before holding them steady.^{[16][17][2][18]}

Cuts followed in 2024 and 2025. The Fed kept rates unchanged through mid-2024 as officials debated when to cut,^[19][20] and in August Powell said the "time has come" to lower them.^[21] It cut by half a point in September and by a quarter-point in November and December, while signaling fewer cuts ahead.^[3][22][23] In 2025 it held rates steady despite intense pressure from President Donald Trump, then cut three times from September to December.^{[24][25][26][27]}

The direction reversed in 2026. The Fed held rates steady early in the year, including at what was expected to be Powell's final meeting as chair, in April.^[28][29][30] As inflation stayed high, it raised rates in September.^[31][4] Minutes released in October showed that officials expected another increase to be needed that year,^[32] but at its October 28 meeting the Fed held rates steady, with Gov. Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike.^[5][33] Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would turn one of its eight meetings in 2027 into a discussion of strategy with no rate decision.^[34] In November, as more data showed inflation spreading beyond one-time price shocks, Fed officials considered faster increases, and Gov. Christopher Waller said he might support a half-point increase in December depending on the data.^[6][7]