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Ongoing story / Iowa

The 2026 Iowa Senate race: Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson

Overview · reviewed November 5, 2026

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek defeated Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa's 2026 race for the open seat of retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst; the Associated Press called it with Turek at 51% to Hinson's 46% with 90% of the vote counted.[1][2] The Cook Political Report had moved the race to a toss-up in August, and polls differed: a Marist poll in September showed Turek ahead by 8 points, while an Iowa Poll in October showed Hinson keeping her lead.[3][4][5]

Read the timeline

Follow this story to see new developments when you return.

The Cook Political Report had moved the race to a toss-up in August, and polls differed: a Marist poll in September showed Turek ahead by 8 points, while an Iowa Poll in October showed Hinson keeping her lead.[3][4][5]

Coverage over time

Share of tracked outlets · weekly (UTC)

Week of 2025-08-25 (UTC): 6%, 11 of 199 tracked outlets (5 left, 3 center, 3 right)Week of 2025-09-01 (UTC): 7%, 12 of 177 tracked outlets (3 left, 3 center, 6 right)Week of 2025-09-08 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-09-15 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-09-22 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-09-29 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-10-06 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-10-13 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-10-20 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-10-27 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-11-03 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-11-10 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-11-17 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-11-24 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-12-01 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-12-08 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-12-15 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-12-22 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2025-12-29 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-01-05 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-01-12 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-01-19 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-01-26 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-02-02 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-02-09 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-02-16 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-02-23 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-03-02 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-03-09 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-03-16 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-03-23 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-03-30 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-04-06 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-04-13 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-04-20 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-04-27 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-05-04 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-05-11 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-05-18 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-05-25 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-01 (UTC): 5%, 9 of 186 tracked outlets (3 left, 4 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-06-08 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-15 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-22 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-29 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-07-06 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-07-13 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-07-20 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-07-27 (UTC): 3%, 19 of 561 tracked outlets (4 left, 8 center, 7 right)Week of 2026-08-03 (UTC): 1%, 5 of 537 tracked outlets (0 left, 5 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-08-10 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-08-17 (UTC): 2%, 7 of 464 tracked outlets (1 left, 3 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-08-24 (UTC): 1%, 5 of 466 tracked outlets (0 left, 5 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-08-31 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-09-07 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-09-14 (UTC): 4%, 19 of 480 tracked outlets (3 left, 14 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-09-21 (UTC): 2%, 9 of 479 tracked outlets (2 left, 4 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-09-28 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-10-05 (UTC): 3%, 12 of 479 tracked outlets (3 left, 8 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-10-12 (UTC): 1%, 7 of 476 tracked outlets (0 left, 5 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-10-19 (UTC): 3%, 12 of 479 tracked outlets (3 left, 6 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-10-26 (UTC): 1%, 4 of 473 tracked outlets (1 left, 2 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-11-02 (UTC): 7%, 33 of 471 tracked outlets (10 left, 16 center, 7 right)Week of 2026-11-09 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outlets, so far

LeftCenterRightLighter bar: this week so far

Each bar is the share of the outlets on our Left / Center / Right rating scale that we tracked publishing that week which carried reporting on this story, split by the outlets' ratings. We track more outlets now than in the archive, so a share keeps earlier and later weeks comparable. An outlet counts once a week however much it published, and outlets in one ownership or syndication group count as one on each side they appear on. A rating describes the outlet, not the report. A gap means no such reports were collected that week, not that nothing was reported anywhere. Weeks run Monday to Sunday in UTC, so a report published on a Sunday evening in US Eastern time counts in the next week. 2 more outlets off the scale (not rated, or outside the left-right graphs) also reported; they are not in this chart. See them.

Weekly counts, outlets and reports (14 weeks with coverage)
Outlets on the rating scale that carried this story each week, of the outlets tracked that week, newest first
Week of (UTC)LeftCenterRightOf trackedShareReceipts
Nov 2, 20261016733 of 4717%
Oct 26, 20261214 of 4731%
Oct 19, 202636312 of 4793%
Oct 12, 20260527 of 4761%
Oct 5, 202638112 of 4793%
Sep 21, 20262439 of 4792%
Sep 14, 2026314219 of 4804%
Aug 24, 20260505 of 4661%
Aug 17, 20261337 of 4642%
Aug 3, 20260505 of 5371%
Jul 27, 202648719 of 5613%
Jun 1, 20263429 of 1865%
Sep 1, 202533612 of 1777%
Aug 25, 202553311 of 1996%

Latest coverage

The newest reporting in this story's record.

  1. Nov 3, 2026 · first reported · Headline from WCBD News 2

    Democratic Iowa Senate candidate says he split his ticket

Background

Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not seek a third term. Hinson, a former TV news anchor in her third House term, became the first Republican to enter the race to succeed her.[2][6] Turek won the Democratic primary in June 2026 over state Sen. Zach Wahls,[7] and former President Barack Obama endorsed the Paralympic gold medalist in July in a video of the two shooting baskets.[8]

Read the full background (3 more paragraphs)

On the trail, Turek said former Vice President Kamala Harris should not campaign for him.[9] Vice President JD Vance rallied for Iowa Republicans in September and called Democrats the party of "lunatics."[10][11]

The Iran war became an issue for Hinson. She had voted six times against House resolutions directing President Donald Trump to halt the war, but in September she called for it to be brought to "a successful and immediate end" and for steps to lower fuel costs.[12][13] As Trump traveled to Iowa in October to boost Republican turnout, the Associated Press described Hinson as an example of the balancing act Republicans faced in the midterms.[14]

Polling and race ratings offered different snapshots over the summer and fall. An Emerson College poll in early August showed Turek trailing Hinson.[15] Later that month, the Cook Political Report moved the race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up," pointing to a political environment that could favor Democrats.[3] A Marist poll in September had Turek at about 50% and Hinson at 42%.[4] Nexstar's Iowa stations announced they would air a live debate between the two.[16] An Iowa Poll in October showed Hinson keeping her lead.[5] Trump campaigned in the state in the closing weeks, including at Sioux City.[17] Turek said on Election Day that he had voted for three Republicans on his ballot.[18] The Guardian described Hinson's loss as a sign that Republicans might be losing rural voters.[1]

Supporting stories (18)
  1. Iowa Democrat who quit race wins seat anyway
  2. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst announces she won’t seek reelection in 2026
  3. Texas, Iowa Senate races shift to toss ups: Cook Political Report
  4. Hinson trails Turek by 8 points in new Iowa Senate poll
  5. Undecided Iowa Voters Are Making Up Their Minds in Tight Hinson-Turek Race
  6. Ashley Hinson hints at Senate run after Ernst announces retirement
  7. Josh Turek wins Democratic primary in battleground Iowa Senate race
  8. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek hosts roundtable in Des Moines
  9. Josh Turek says Kamala Harris should not campaign for him
  10. JD Vance returns to Iowa as Senate and governor races heat up
  11. Vance blasts Democrats as ‘lunatics’ in Iowa rally push for GOP candidates
  12. Iowa GOP Senate candidate calls for Iran war to end despite voting to let Trump continue it
  13. GOP nominees call for end to Iran war while on campaign trail
  14. Ashley Hinson shows Republicans' midterm balancing act as Trump heads to Iowa to boost turnout
  15. Sand leads Lahn in Iowa governor's race while Turek trails Hinson for Senate: Poll
  16. Nexstar's Iowa TV stations to air live debate between candidates for U.S. Senate
  17. President Donald Trump hosting rally in Sioux City
  18. Democratic Iowa Senate candidate says he split his ticket

The full record

Each date is when an update was first reported.

All 23 recorded updates

November 2026

  1. Democratic Iowa Senate candidate says he split his ticketHeadline from The Hill · 5 outlets
  2. Iowa Democrat who quit race wins seat anywayHeadline from The Hill · 36 outlets

October 2026

  1. AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa on Election DayHeadline from Philadelphia Inquirer · 3 outlets
  2. President Donald Trump hosting rally in Sioux CityHeadline from KELOLAND Sioux Falls · 2 outlets
  3. Ashley Hinson shows Republicans' midterm balancing act as Trump heads to Iowa to boost turnoutHeadline from WFMZ Allentown · 10 outlets
  4. Undecided Iowa Voters Are Making Up Their Minds in Tight Hinson-Turek RaceHeadline from Newsweek · 2 outlets
  5. Trump to campaign in Iowa twice before Election DayHeadline from The Hill · 4 outlets
  6. Hinson leads Iowa Senate contest as Sand holds edge for governor: PollHeadline from The Hill · 6 outlets
  7. Debate Night Iowa: Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek debate in U.S. Senate raceHeadline from WHO 13 Des Moines · 9 outlets
  8. Turek, Hinson spar in first Iowa Senate debate: 3 takeawaysHeadline from The Hill · 4 outlets

September 2026

  1. Nexstar's Iowa TV stations to air live debate between candidates for U.S. SenateHeadline from WHO 13 Des Moines · 1 outlet
  2. Hinson trails Turek by 8 points in new Iowa Senate pollHeadline from The Hill · 4 outlets
  3. GOP nominees call for end to Iran war while on campaign trailHeadline from The Hill · 3 outlets
  4. Iowa GOP Senate candidate calls for Iran war to end despite voting to let Trump continue itHeadline from NBC News · 3 outlets
  5. Vance blasts Democrats as ‘lunatics’ in Iowa rally push for GOP candidatesHeadline from WHEC Rochester · 2 outlets
  6. JD Vance returns to Iowa as Senate and governor races heat upHeadline from MyNorthwest · 18 outlets

August 2026

  1. Josh Turek says Kamala Harris should not campaign for himHeadline from The Hill · 5 outlets
  2. Texas, Iowa Senate races shift to toss ups: Cook Political ReportHeadline from WHO 13 Des Moines · 7 outlets
  3. Sand leads Lahn in Iowa governor's race while Turek trails Hinson for Senate: PollHeadline from Phl17 · 5 outlets

July 2026

  1. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek hosts roundtable in Des MoinesHeadline from WHO 13 Des Moines · 18 outlets

June 2026

  1. Josh Turek wins Democratic primary in battleground Iowa Senate raceHeadline from NBC News · 9 outlets

September 2025

  1. Ashley Hinson hints at Senate run after Ernst announces retirementHeadline from The Hill · 5 outlets

August 2025

  1. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst announces she won’t seek reelection in 2026Headline from Roll Call · 15 outlets

Coverage & sources

Read the reports, see how much was collected over time, or compare outlets by political leaning.

Coverage & sources →