Brazil's 2026 presidential election: Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro's legal troubles followed him through the campaign. A weeklong fight among Supreme Court justices became a campaign issue and renewed scrutiny of his ties to an executive at the center of a banking fraud.^[13] He came under a Supreme Court investigation for allegedly receiving $12 million from a disgraced banker to finance a film about his father. He said he had "nothing to hide."^[8]

The election also strained relations with Washington. Brazil denied visas to two senior State Department officials whom the Trump administration planned to send to scrutinize the fairness and integrity of the electoral system before the vote. The State Department called "baseless" the Brazilian claim that the delegation aimed to shape the election.^[7] In August, the administration revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador to the United States in retaliation. A senior State Department official said it would be reinstated immediately if Brazil granted diplomatic approval for Trump's nominee for US ambassador to Brazil, Daniel Perez.^[6] Lula sought to cast the race as a fight against submission to foreign interests,^[12] and Brazil took steps to shield the vote from potential US meddling.^[14] Two days before the first round, the United States suspended consular services at its embassy and consulates in Brazil, and Australia closed its embassy, both citing unspecified security concerns.^[15]

The campaigns opened in mid-August, with both candidates courting women voters.^[16] The top electoral court set new standards for AI-generated deepfakes in political advertising in a case involving Flávio Bolsonaro,^[17] and Lula signed an order banning fixed-odds betting, calling the industry a "cancer."^[18] Three days before the first round, TV Globo canceled the final presidential debate, citing judicial interference.^[19]

Polls during the runoff campaign showed Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead or the two tied.^[20][21] Lula accused Meta at the electoral court of algorithmic bias favoring Bolsonaro. The court ordered the company to treat the two candidates equally and to prove that it did, and Meta told the court it gave them equal treatment.^[22][23] Bolsonaro promised a sharp shift in climate and Amazon policy,^[24] and the two candidates clashed in their first head-to-head debate, a week before the runoff.^[21] Lula then said he would not debate Bolsonaro again unless Bolsonaro disclosed his financial records, and his campaign later said he had agreed to all of Bolsonaro's conditions for disclosing their bank records.^[25] Corruption ranked as a top concern for many voters.^[26] Two brothers from Brazil's richest family, João and Walter Moreira Salles, backed Lula, and the left stepped up its campaigning on social media and in the streets.^[1] A federal court ordered the government to help Indigenous voters in remote parts of the Amazon get to the polls,^[27] and analysts said the result could help shape the future of the Amazon.^[28]

Both campaigns asked for more time over problems at polling places in their strongholds, and Justice Cristiano Zanin of the Supreme Court extended voting nationwide by two hours, forcing the electoral court to pause the count amid transport disruptions and legal challenges.^[3] Conservative outlets noted that Zanin had been Lula's personal lawyer.^[3] With all votes counted, the electoral court declared Lula the winner, after three weeks of rallies and voter mobilization had overturned his first-round defeat.^[1] Flávio Bolsonaro called for the runoff to be annulled after a vote that Bloomberg said was marred by allegations of voter suppression and the last-minute extension.^[1] Traders braced for steep losses in Brazilian markets, where many investors had preferred Bolsonaro,^[1] and Lula, whose new term begins in January 2027, faces a Congress that has shifted to the right and high public debt.^[1][29]

Flávio Bolsonaro's defeat was followed by a flight abroad. The day after the runoff, the Supreme Court ordered him to surrender his passports and barred him from leaving the country, citing ongoing investigations including a money-laundering probe; he said he would comply.^[4] Authorities canceled the passports when he missed the deadline, and his escape to Miami set off a search for his whereabouts and drew heightened political and financial scrutiny.^[4][5] A Supreme Court justice also ordered federal police to look into possible illegal foreign financing of his campaign, including by a group linked to Vance.^[5] Lula's government summoned Argentina's representative after Flávio Bolsonaro fled to the United States via Argentina,^[30] and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration had not facilitated his departure.^[31] In November, Brazil's top electoral court fined Meta $1.3 million for not fully complying with court orders during the runoff campaign, while finding insufficient evidence of intentional electoral manipulation.^[32]