Trump and Canada: Trump's tariffs and his calls for a 51st state

That month Trump paused the tariffs for 30 days after Canada agreed to step up border security and fight fentanyl trafficking.^[10] They took effect on March 4, raising fears of a damaging trade war,^[11] and Trudeau answered with 25% tariffs on $155 billion of American goods.^[12]

Under Trudeau's successor, Prime Minister Mark Carney, the pressure continued. Trump's repeated talk of annexation led Carney to invite Britain's King Charles III to open Canada's parliament in May 2025, a visit many saw as a show of support for the country.^[13] In July Trump said he would raise tariffs on Canadian goods to 35%.^[14] In October he ended trade talks over an anti-tariff television ad from Ontario that featured the late President Ronald Reagan,^[15] and in January 2026 he threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada went ahead with a trade deal with China.^[16]

The trade pact itself came up for review in 2026. The Trump administration declined in July to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in its current form, starting a 10-year process to resolve the countries' disputes or discard the pact.^[1] Trump then announced 50% tariffs, to take effect in 30 days, on Canadian goods from wine to hockey sticks, citing what his administration called discriminatory trade measures.^[2] The tariffs took effect after trade talks broke down in August. Canada announced dollar-for-dollar tariffs on about $20 billion of American goods, including steel and dairy products, starting September 8.^[3] In October, a New Jersey food importer sued to block the 50% tariffs, which had been imposed under a 1930 law.^[17]

The dispute widened after Canada's tariffs took effect. Trump moved to bar Canadian products from large federal contracts and announced a ban on Canadian dairy products, most alcoholic beverages and motorcycles, and Carney said Canada would speed up its efforts to reduce its reliance on the United States.^[18] The ban, covering nearly $1 billion of goods, took effect on September 29.^[4] Trump also signed an order directing the interior secretary to rename Lake Ontario "Lake America" in the United States. Carney said Canada would keep calling it Lake Ontario.^[19]

In October, ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, the US Embassy in Canada accused Canadian leaders of openly describing plans to influence American politics, backing up Ambassador Pete Hoekstra's claims of possible election interference.^[5] Days later Collins, who was in a tight reelection race, said the administration had exempted some Canadian goods from the 50% tariffs after she spoke with trade negotiator Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the toll the tariffs were taking on Maine, whose economy relies heavily on trade with Canada.^[6] Canada's own politics through the dispute, including Carney's rise, are followed in a separate arc. Trump told a rally in late October that a trade agreement would be reached "pretty soon," and Prime Minister Mark Carney reported progress after they spoke at the end of the month.^[20][21] After the midterms, Carney welcomed a Democratic push to repeal the tariffs,^[22] but said Trump's administration would remain the key decision-maker on trade.^[23]