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Ongoing story / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The 2026 'super' El Niño and its effects around the world

Overview · reviewed October 23, 2026

An El Niño, the periodic warming of the Pacific that shifts weather around the world, formed in June 2026. By September it had become what forecasters called a "super" El Niño, widely expected to be the strongest on record.[1][2] It has been blamed for deadly floods in Chile, drought that forced the Panama Canal to cut traffic and the first September without an Atlantic hurricane in more than 30 years.[3][4][5] One study projected that its heat could kill more than 450,000 people by February.[6]

Read the timeline

Follow this story to see new developments when you return.

It has been blamed for deadly floods in Chile, drought that forced the Panama Canal to cut traffic and the first September without an Atlantic hurricane in more than 30 years.[3][4][5] One study projected that its heat could kill more than 450,000 people by February.[6]

Coverage over time

Share of tracked outlets · weekly (UTC)

Week of 2026-06-08 (UTC): 2%, 4 of 200 tracked outlets (1 left, 2 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-06-15 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-22 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-06-29 (UTC): 2%, 10 of 569 tracked outlets (1 left, 6 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-07-06 (UTC): 5%, 29 of 560 tracked outlets (6 left, 17 center, 6 right)Week of 2026-07-13 (UTC): 4%, 20 of 559 tracked outlets (1 left, 17 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-07-20 (UTC): 4%, 20 of 562 tracked outlets (3 left, 13 center, 4 right)Week of 2026-07-27 (UTC): 3%, 15 of 561 tracked outlets (2 left, 10 center, 3 right)Week of 2026-08-03 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-08-10 (UTC): 4%, 22 of 545 tracked outlets (4 left, 16 center, 2 right)Week of 2026-08-17 (UTC): 2%, 9 of 464 tracked outlets (1 left, 8 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-08-24 (UTC): 5%, 25 of 466 tracked outlets (3 left, 21 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-08-31 (UTC): 1%, 6 of 475 tracked outlets (0 left, 6 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-09-07 (UTC): 2%, 8 of 480 tracked outlets (0 left, 8 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-09-14 (UTC): 2%, 10 of 480 tracked outlets (0 left, 10 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-09-21 (UTC): 13%, 60 of 479 tracked outlets (11 left, 44 center, 5 right)Week of 2026-09-28 (UTC): 4%, 20 of 476 tracked outlets (3 left, 17 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-10-05 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-10-12 (UTC): 5%, 23 of 476 tracked outlets (3 left, 19 center, 1 right)Week of 2026-10-19 (UTC): 1%, 7 of 479 tracked outlets (0 left, 7 center, 0 right)Week of 2026-10-26 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-11-02 (UTC): no coverage from tracked outletsWeek of 2026-11-09 (UTC): 1%, 6 of 473 tracked outlets (0 left, 6 center, 0 right), so far

LeftCenterRightLighter bar: this week so far

Each bar is the share of the outlets on our Left / Center / Right rating scale that we tracked publishing that week which carried reporting on this story, split by the outlets' ratings. We track more outlets now than in the archive, so a share keeps earlier and later weeks comparable. An outlet counts once a week however much it published, and outlets in one ownership or syndication group count as one on each side they appear on. A rating describes the outlet, not the report. A gap means no such reports were collected that week, not that nothing was reported anywhere. Weeks run Monday to Sunday in UTC, so a report published on a Sunday evening in US Eastern time counts in the next week. 9 more outlets off the scale (not rated, or outside the left-right graphs) also reported; they are not in this chart. See them.

Weekly counts, outlets and reports (17 weeks with coverage)
Outlets on the rating scale that carried this story each week, of the outlets tracked that week, newest first
Week of (UTC)LeftCenterRightOf trackedShareReceipts
Nov 9, 2026 (so far)0606 of 4731%
Oct 19, 20260707 of 4791%
Oct 12, 2026319123 of 4765%
Sep 28, 2026317020 of 4764%
Sep 21, 20261144560 of 47913%
Sep 14, 2026010010 of 4802%
Sep 7, 20260808 of 4802%
Aug 31, 20260606 of 4751%
Aug 24, 2026321125 of 4665%
Aug 17, 20261809 of 4642%
Aug 10, 2026416222 of 5454%
Jul 27, 2026210315 of 5613%
Jul 20, 2026313420 of 5624%
Jul 13, 2026117220 of 5594%
Jul 6, 2026617629 of 5605%
Jun 29, 202616310 of 5692%
Jun 8, 20261214 of 2002%

Latest coverage

The newest reporting in this story's record.

  1. Nov 11, 2026 · first reported · Headline from Vail Daily

    Do El Niño conditions mean more snow for Colorado ski resorts? Here’s what the data shows.

Background

US meteorologists announced in June 2026 that an El Niño, the natural warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather around the globe, had formed and was expected to reach historic strength.[1] The World Meteorological Organization warned in July that it would quickly become a strong event.[7] By August, forecasters gave it at least a 90% chance of reaching the "very strong" category, possibly the strongest since records began in 1950.[8] Britain's national weather agency said it could make 2027 the hottest year on record.[9] In September, forecasters said it had turned "super."[2]

Read the full background (2 more paragraphs)

Its effects arrived early. Weeklong rainstorms in Chile blamed on El Niño killed at least 10 people in July,[3] and the Panama Canal cut daily ship transits by more than a tenth because of low rainfall.[4] The world's oceans reached their highest average surface temperature on record in August.[10] Forecasters lowered their Atlantic hurricane outlook,[11] and in September the Atlantic produced no hurricane for the first time in more than 30 years.[5] Experts warned of drought across Asia that could raise food prices worldwide.[12]

Officials and scientists warned of worse to come. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño was "adding fuel to a planet already on fire,"[13] and a new study found that human-caused warming is making El Niño events stronger.[14] A Climate Impact Lab report estimated that its extra heat could kill more than 450,000 people by February, with the greatest danger in places that are already hot and relatively poor.[6] California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in September ahead of the winter storm season,[15] and climate models showed El Niño was almost certain to last into the spring of 2027.[16] In mid-October, the first official winter forecast for the United States reflected the strong El Niño.[17] Days later, forecasters warned that its strength could go "off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades."[18]

Supporting stories (18)
  1. El Niño is here and scientists fear it’ll be big, bad, and costly with heat, floods, droughts, fires
  2. Super El Niño is actually here now, and it’s only going to get stronger
  3. Weeklong rainstorms in Chile blamed on El Nino kill at least 10 and trigger flash floods
  4. Panama Canal to reduce shipping over El Niño-fueled drought
  5. El Niño just gave us the first no-hurricane September in decades. How long can the Atlantic shutout last?
  6. Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggests
  7. El Nino set to be 'strong', UN warns
  8. 'Super' El Niño may be strongest since 1950. When will it peak, hit the US?
  9. World must look to the past to prepare for likely unprecedented El Niño
  10. World's oceans hit highest temperature on record as El Niño grows
  11. Researchers scale down hurricane season forecast ahead of 'powerful' El Niño
  12. Worsening El Nino threatens Asia with drought, potentially raising food prices globally
  13. UN, scientists warn that strong El Nino will add fuel to 'a planet already on fire'
  14. As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos
  15. Newsom declares state of emergency for California ahead of super El Niño storm season
  16. '100% to 99% chance' El Niño lasts 6 months: What does that mean for you?
  17. US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say. If you want more snow, look south
  18. 'Behemoth' El Niño could be 'off the charts,' forecasters warn

The full record

Each date is when an update was first reported.

All 49 recorded updates

November 2026

  1. Do El Niño conditions mean more snow for Colorado ski resorts? Here’s what the data shows.Headline from Summit Daily · 6 outlets

October 2026

  1. 'Behemoth' El Niño could be 'off the charts,' forecasters warnHeadline from The Hill · 7 outlets
  2. US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say. If you want more snow, look southHeadline from KOB 4 · 25 outlets
  3. This year's El Niño looks a lot like 1997. What happened then?Headline from The Hill · 6 outlets
  4. Studying this super El Niño could save lives. NOAA is scaling back researchHeadline from KBRW · 2 outlets
  5. El Niño just gave us the first no-hurricane September in decades. How long can the Atlantic shutout last?Headline from KTVZ Bend · 9 outlets

September 2026

  1. Empty nets in Latin America as fish flee El NinoHeadline from WFMZ Allentown · 2 outlets
  2. 'Very strong' El Niño could bring interesting weather this winter: How will it impact you?Headline from ABC 4 Utah · 1 outlet
  3. '100% to 99% chance' El Niño lasts 6 months: What does that mean for you?Headline from The Hill · 8 outlets
  4. California needs water. El Nino might bring too much.Headline from Hawaiitribune Herald · 2 outlets
  5. California Faces Billions in Damages From El Niño Storms, Starting NowHeadline from Bloomberg · 1 outlet
  6. Marin County braces for potential El Niño storms and challenging winterHeadline from KION Central Coast · 1 outlet
  7. 1982 El Niño event could help Bay Area prepare for forecasted super El NiñoHeadline from KION Central Coast · 1 outlet
  8. What will ‘super’ El Nino bring to landlocked, parched Wyoming?Headline from WyoFile · 4 outlets
  9. Super-sized El Niño could cause more than 450,000 heat deaths by February, study suggestsHeadline from KVIA El Paso · 27 outlets
  10. Long Beach declares local emergency over possibly strong El Niño seasonHeadline from NBC Los Angeles · 3 outlets
  11. Worsening El Nino threatens Asia with drought, potentially raising food prices globallyHeadline from Philadelphia Inquirer · 5 outlets
  12. Historic El Niño could mean a wetter start to Colorado’s winter — but the above-average snow might not stick aroundHeadline from Aspen Times · 7 outlets
  13. Newsom declares state of emergency for California ahead of super El Niño storm seasonHeadline from KEYT Santa Barbara · 29 outlets
  14. As cities prepare for 2026’s super El Niño, some crucial blind spots can’t be ignoredHeadline from The Conversation US · 3 outlets
  15. Beach erosion worsening in Malibu as Newsom issues El Niño state of emergencyHeadline from KTLA Los Angeles · 2 outlets
  16. Super El Niño is actually here now, and it’s only going to get strongerHeadline from KEYT Santa Barbara · 9 outlets
  17. 2026’s El Niño is shaping up to be a doozy – it’s already affecting global shipping, fish behavior and heatHeadline from The Conversation US · 8 outlets
  18. Map shows where the 2026 'super' El Niño could bring lots of rain, extreme droughtHeadline from The Hill · 6 outlets

August 2026

  1. As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El NinosHeadline from WTOP Washington DC · 17 outlets

Coverage & sources

Read the reports, see how much was collected over time, or compare outlets by political leaning.

Coverage & sources →